I have heard a number of political rumors, but one circulated by Eesti Päevaleht is by far my favorite: that Jüri Pihl, the Minister of the Interior, is navigating his way into the top seat in the Estonian government.
The rumor is based on several assumptions. The first is that, if the et tu Padar? moment is to come and Reform is to be forced into opposition, then the Social Democrats, and their measly 10 seats in the Riigikogu, will play deal maker for a collaboration between the interests of IRL and the Center Party. This would mean that SDE would be able to demand the top concession, the prime minister's seat, in the new government.
The second assumption is that Pihl, not SDE leader and Finance Minister Ivari Padar, is more favored for the job. I mean, let's face it, prime ministers have to get up early, wear suits all the time, travel abroad, and give boring speeches about cyber attacks and e-stonia. Why would a guy from rural Võru county, like Padar, volunteer for a position like that?
The third assumption is that Pihl has built himself a veritable tower of power within the security services. By combining institutions and appointing loyalists he now has an important power base in the country, somewhat equivalent to Reform Party's friends in the banking industry and the media, or Center Party's pals in the transit sector. He now has a position from which he can effectively bargain. Perhaps he even has a secret file marked "dirty laundry."