esmaspäev, märts 05, 2007

On väga väga tore päev!

As you all know by now, Reformierakond, led by Prime Minister Andrus "Hunt Kriimsilm" Ansip won yesterday's parliamentary elections, receiving a prelimary mandate of 31 seats in the Estonian parliament, the Riigikogu, an 11-seat gain from the previous election. Ansip also received the most votes of any candidate in the election.

Polling showed that Keskerakond, the Center Party led by Edgar Savisaar, had been poised for victory, but Savisaar came up in second place last night, with the Keskid scoring a preliminary mandate for 29 seats, a one seat gain.

Polling also showed that Isamaa -Res Publica Liit would perform poorly, but they turned out their base and still won a mandate for 19 seats. Defining their loss from the 2003 elections is difficult because Isamaa and Res Publica were two parties at that point, and Res Publica had won 28 seats in parliament while Isamaa held only four. Either way, they were the largest block in parliament after their merger and have still dominated the agenda over the past two years.

Now they are no longer the largest block, by far. However, their ground game should be commended. They had high visibility here in Tartu. I even saw their Tartu candidate, Tõnis Lukas out parading wearing his IRL scarf. They got out the vote.

Another surprise was the strong showing up the Sotsiaaldemokraatlikud Erakond, or the Social Democrats. Polling showed them with an abysmal 6 percent of the vote, but they won 11 percent of the vote, and won in Hiiumaa and Võrumaa. Now they should have 10 seats in government.

Finally, Rahvaliit turned out its loyal base, performing better than it had been expected to and retained six seats, a loss of seven from its current position. Meanwhile, newcomers the Rohelised (Greens) also won a mandate of six seats, one more than the five Marek Strandberg had hoped for.

Rohelised had been polling high, but I think we all knew their loyalty was soft because they are only a few months old. So rather than seeing their performance as a "loss", I see it as a fairly healthy result for a new party, especially one with a different kind of platform, like the Rohelised. Considering Finland's Green League won 8 percent in the 2003 Eduskunta elections, the Rohelised performance is commendable.

7 kommentaari:

Jens-Olaf ütles ...

Receiving around 5 % in the early days of the German 'DIE GRÜNEN' was like a shock in a running three party system. But with 6 parties scoring more than this in Estonia it has a lesser meaning, I guess.

Giustino ütles ...

Receiving around 5 % in the early days of the German 'DIE GRÜNEN' was like a shock in a running three party system. But with 6 parties scoring more than this in Estonia it has a lesser meaning, I guess.

They did well across the country too, and particularly well in urban areas. It was interesting that Keskerakond got 50-something percent of the vote in Ida-Virumaa.

Is that just because they have a better operation there? Or is the notion that it's the "Kremlin's favorite", and people just want to do as the Kremlin dictates?

I don't see why the Social Democrat message doesn't resonate especially well there. Maybe they should spend more money in Ida-Virumaa in 2011.

Andres ütles ...

The Greens did especially well considering they had no election ads. No ads in printed media nor in TV. Even the Christian Democrats had ads out and they only received 1,7% if I remember correctly, so that shows that green ideas truly have a base in Estonia.

As for Kesk and the Russian electorate, Keskerakond is widely portraited as the sole protector of Russians in Estonia. They are the ones that want to turn the country more east etc. Whether it's really true, or bullshitting the voters, beats me. Apart from that Savisaar is a charismatic person and by the way Russians in Russia love Putin, it's logical that those in Estonia would love the equivalent. The guy that doesn't bs about politics and stuffs but Gets It Done (tm). (some voters in Ida-Virumaa actually had asked if they could vote for Savisaar and being denied the chance, because Savisaar ran in Tallinn, decided to not vote at all)

Anonüümne ütles ...

I like your Hunt Kriimsilm metaphore :)
BTW shows also your good knowledge of Estonian TV-heritage :)

Giustino ütles ...

(some voters in Ida-Virumaa actually had asked if they could vote for Savisaar and being denied the chance, because Savisaar ran in Tallinn, decided to not vote at all)

I have a big feeling the Russian propaganda machine was preparing for a Savisaar victory, whereby Lavrov could say that "healthy forces" had taken hold in Estonia and that "anti-Russian" parties had been rebuffed.

space_maze ütles ...

With metaphors already having been mentioned .. is it me, or is Mart Laar totally Mõmmi?

And yes, it seems like Russian media is reporting the result as a "Fascist victory". That the 100 000+ Russians voting saw no need for parties a la Konstitutsioonierakond either doesn't seem to mean a thing.

Giustino ütles ...

And yes, it seems like Russian media is reporting the result as a "Fascist victory". That the 100 000+ Russians voting saw no need for parties a la Konstitutsioonierakond either doesn't seem to mean a thing.

I'm confused by their logic. They say that "20 percent of Estonian residents can't vote" in parliamentary elections. But every time I run the numbers, it tells me that only 9.3 percent of residents lack citizenship.

7 percent have opted for Russian citizenship - which means that in 2008 they'll be lining up in Narva to cast their vote for whomever Putin has selected as his successor. They don't count because they're Russian citizens. I live in Estonia and I am an American citizen. I don't get to vote in parliamentary elections either.

So we're talking about 9 percent of the population. Even if they were all granted suffrage, it would probably just create more voters for Keskerakond, because these voters largely reside in KESK-friendly districts.

I don't see how Zarenkov's marginal Constitution Party would benefit. Would they get 2 percent of the vote? 3 percent? Even with 5 percent of the vote, with members in parliament, what would they honestly be able to accomplish?

The choice between Savisaar and Zarenkov is like an American lefty deciding whether or not to vite Democratic or Green. Most of them opt for the Democrats in the end, knowing that their vote "counts more."