Never a people to miss an opportunity to work some more, the very Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip will take a stab at forming the next coalition government today, Sunday, here in Estonia. Talks are underway with four parties, Reformierakond (31 seats), Isamaa-Res Publica Liit (19 seats), the Sotsid (13 seats) and Rohelised (6 seats).Keskerakond has already declared publicly that it will head to the opposition in the next Riigikogu. I don't know what direct role Russian interests play in Keskerakond, but Russian official's post-election posturing leaves no doubt that Savisaar is their favorite -- a post-Cold War Urho Kekkonen they can go hunting with.
But that leaves us to the tantalizing task of guessing who is going to get which ministry.
Well, given Reform's showing in the elction, I would suspect that they wish to retain their current ministers. That is, Ansip will continue as prime minister, Rein Lang as justice minister, the Mr. Rogers'-esque Paul-Eerik Rummo as population and ethnic affairs minister, and Jürgen Ligi as defense minister.
Some have already speculated that Mart Laar intends to seek the foreign minister's chair. I bet that IRL also has its eyes on the Ministry of Education. Perhaps Ene Ergma can find an uncontested job there, or will Jaak Aaviksoo show her up? Well, if Laar does take the FM job, if I have heard that Urmas Paet would instead take over the ministry of culture.
I have also heard rumors that Sotsdem leader Ivari Padar has his sights on the Ministry of Agriculture, and, of course, Rohelised leader Marek Strandberg wishes to take over the ministry of environment. In fact, I can very well imagine the Greens being included in this government with one minister's chair. If there were major disagreements, it's obvious that the chair could be easily filled without compromising the coalition in the future. What's more it will keep the Rohelised in bed with Ansip and Laar, instead of making deals with Savisaar on the side.
Outside of that, with Keskerakond and Eestimaa Rahvaliit heading into opposition, I bet that Reform will make use of its electoral muscle and put more if its ministers into powerful positions, such as the ministry of finance and the ministry of economic affairs and communications.
What do you think the next cabinet will look like?
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Jürgen Ligi as defense minister? Not going to happen. Wanna bet? As Savisaar said: "It wouldn't be so sad to be sitting in the parliament - after all, so will be my dear colleague Ligi."
What do you think the next cabinet will look like?
Defense - Mikser or someone from IRL
Culture - I can only hope that it's not a Reformer, Peeter Jalakas, Indrek Saar or Mart Meri would be nice. I see nightmares about Jänes and paet, though.
Education - Kreitzberg, Lukas or Aaviksoo (depends on which kind of policy they're going to apply)
Foreing affairs - Paet is more popular than competent, picking Laar would freeze relations with Russia, so Mikser would actually be good surprise choice
Environment - Strandberg WOULD be a logical choice, but..
Justice - Lang or Reinsalu
Foreing affairs - Paet is more popular than competent, picking Laar would freeze relations with Russia, so Mikser would actually be good surprise choice
I would really, *really* like to see Laar sit down to talk about the border treaty with Sergei Lavrov.
I know it may not be in the national interest, but ... so what. Doesn't the entertainment factor count?
i definately like to see laar as a qualified historian enjoying an intelligent discussion with mr lavrov. although i wouldn't mind if mikser would be the one appointed foreign minister.
i would hate to see ligi or any other reform idiot who is fond of the concept of a purely professional arm take the seat of the defense minister.
why would they even need the greens? just to make the coalition more unstable. then it would be easier to switch to savisaar later on. or ,aybe i am a little to paranoid.
I'd actually say Laar as FM is a foregone conclusion - obviously the leader of the second biggest party in the coalition is going to need a key posting. And you're right, it will be hilarious to see Russia's reaction.
But a much more interesting question, I think, is what will happen in 2.5 years when this government falls. With the current make-up of the parliament, Reform and IRL together are only one vote short of blocking any opposing legislation, so one of them is going to have to be in the government anyway. The likelyhood of a Reform-Kesk coalition at this stage is quite low for the simple reason that this is Reform's coalition, and if it fails, it'll be Reform's fault. Now, how exactly do you see Kesk and IRL playing well with each other?
But a much more interesting question, I think, is what will happen in 2.5 years when this government falls.
In 2.5 years it will be the summer of 2009. And Ansip will be the longest serving prime minister in Estonia's history. Whoa.
Ansip has a history of decisions which make him improbably popular. The first memorable thing he's done, back when he was mayor of Tartu, was to pass a local exception to the state law on public consumption of alcohol, whereby you can drink beer on Pirogov hill.
Real news from Real Estonia. According to Mr Zarenkov, the real reason behind E-voting was to give war criminals condemned in Nürnberg (you're not hallucinating) the possibility to participate in voting. The war criminals voted for 4 parties - IRL, Reform, SDE and Greens, securing them the places in government. Zarenkov also demands publication of the names of E-voters to drag those fascist monsters to daylight and to expose the real face of Estonia.
That's the most original argument against E-voting I've ever heard - it gives Hitler and Göring chance to participate in Estonian elections. Our junta's evil schemes are getting more sophisticated every day.
Plasma-jack, can you give us a link to that hilarious piece of writing?
that was yesterday on the PBK News for Estonia, Pavel Ivanov was interviewing Zarenkov. read it from a mail list, can't link.
environment - Lotman or Lahtvee, definitely not Strandberg. He even said, he's not capable. He's probably more intrested in council seats of government-owned companies.
personally, I'm most interested in the minister of Education. the past one has been... well... what do you call a minister of education who hasn't any? So, Lukas would be good, and so would Aaviksoo, depending on what they want - broad new concepts or economic stability... both of which we need.
the Minister of Economy this time MUST be a Reformer, although I shudder to think of the crap that person will have to shoulder just because of his/ her predecessor. yes, yes, I know I'm being bigoted but seriously peopel, from the way Savisaar carried on, he has abslutely no idea whatsoever about how economy functions.
J2nes... I doubt she would want to leave the mayorship of Tartu, although you never know. I kind of got the idea that she was rather surprised to be named one of the Reform's candidates for President this spring/summer and even though she was reasonably popular I got the idea that she rather wanted to stay in Tartu.
What I'd love to see? Lotman as foreing minister.
I don't really know too much about him, and it really doesn't seem to be his area of expertice .. but god I would love to see the look on the faces of Lavrovites, trying to display Estonia as the continuation of Nazi Germany, if a Russian Jew, as commited to the Estonian state as any Urmas, Andrus or Mart would be, would be the one to tell them to stick it. :D
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