The Estonian parliamentary elections are in 12 days and I have no idea what the next Riigikogu is going to look like. Our only clue is a TNS Emor poll from Feb. 12 that shows Keskerakond leading Reformierakond by 2 percentage points. That poll was conducted in mid January, and no margin of error was provided.
Still, despite this virtual tie, I believe that many Estonians think that Edgar Savisaar's Keskid will triumph on March 4. I chalk this up to two things: 1) Estonian pessimism; 2) Savikas' performance in the 2005 municipal elections.
However, there are some major changes afoot. One of them is that Eesti Rahvaliit is, by all accounts, not going to be in the next Riigikogu. The second is that the Rohelised are polling pretty high for a new party. We'll see how much their support erodes on election day. Personally, I don't think they're getting 11 percent of the vote.
I detect among acquaintances some disappointment with Prime Minister Andrus Ansip. Nobody is that enthused about him. But just because they don't like Andrus, it doesn't mean that they don't equally despise Edgar. That leads me to think that Reform's discontents will vote for other center-right parties, like Isamaa-Res Publica Liit or the Sotsid.
I also think that if Reform can tie the Keskid, the next coalition government will actually be Reformierakond, IRL, and Rohelised. I don't know if Ansip will survive as PM, but expect to see Strandberg as minister of the environment, and perhaps Mart Laar as foreign minister. That's my prediction for now, although it could change with further information. I have a hard time envisioning a Savisaar-led government, but it would probably include Reform as well, because they want to keep his hands tied, even if they're not running the show.