pühapäev, aprill 06, 2008

tanking in tallinn

Explain this for me:
Support for the ruling Estonian Reform Party (ER) has declined over the past month, according to a poll by TNS Emor. 30 per cent of respondents would vote for the ER in the next legislative election, down five points since January.

The Estonian Centre Party (KESK) is second with 27 per cent—up four points in two months—followed by the Union of Fatherland and Res Publica (IRPL) with 16 per cent, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 12 per cent, the Estonian Greens (EER) with eight per cent, and the Estonian People’s Union (ERL) with four per cent.

Reform Party has gone from enjoying a post-Bronze Soldier crisis high of 43 percent support in July 2007, to just barely topping KESK in this recent poll. Why? Perhaps call it the 'Ansip malaise' -- no euro adoption, higher inflation, a cooling real estate market, and, in general, no big plans for, uh, reform.

Meanwhile, government investments in research and development, education, and health care aren't really matching Estonia's neighbors', and so human development also lags behind. The average Estonian man lives to the age of 66. His Finnish counterpart lives to 79. For all the new, shiny commercial buildings in Tallinn, maybe the average Andres hasn't been feeling enough love from Stenbock House. What's your take?

22 kommentaari:

Jens-Olaf ütles ...

66. That's it? Something is certainly wrong. I hope my father visits my home at the age of 76 and see his grand childs not far from now.

Andres ütles ...

The expected life span for women in Estonia is about 77 years. So an average Estonian granny will "enjoy" 11 years of solitude in the end of her life (which is actually pretty much accurate for my grandma). Statistics people say stupid deaths in the 20s and 30s considerably bring down the average expected lifespan though. So if an Estonian man makes it through 35, he has a good hope to live almost 80.

Puu ütles ...

What they need is a more active Boy scouts. An organization everyone from Dick Cheney to David Lynch appreciates. That way when they boys get into a stupid car crash they'll know how to apply a torniquette.

Anonüümne ütles ...

That leaves miles and miles of unlaid pipe of all ages. If you got the tool and the drive, Estonia must be a true kepivenna heaven.

AndresS ütles ...

It's the economy, stupid. Reform ran on making everyone rich and now that people are being forced to pinch pennies a bit (and it will likely get worse before it gets better) Reforms fairy dust is starting to wear off.

Puu ütles ...

Anonuumne. I am glad to hear that you have a keppivend. Noone should be alone in this world .

lounamaa ütles ...

Many elderly Estonians shifted from supporting Kesk to loving Andrus after the Bronze Soldier riots, because he managed to show them Russkies who's in charge. (An oversimplification, of course, but older people did have a much more emotional relationship with the statue that got moved.)

Now that the prices of essential commodities are growing at a much faster pace than their pensions, it seems that the elderly are starting to reconsider.

My point is that the elderly make up a voting group that is numerous, active and actually tends to view the world in terms of there being a "good guy party" and a "bad guy party". Due to this, the group has a considerable influence on the results of both actual elections and opinion polls (which often do not reflect the number of respondents - most likely the younger ones - who answered the who-do-you-support question with "Uuummm, I dunno...").

Of course, the Reform Party has also managed to lose some grassroots support by trying to screw the employees with new employment legislation concocted by Maret Maripuu and by letting Ansip repeat his mantra of "everything is better than ever before" when everyone is feeling the pain of economic slowdown.

Flasher T ütles ...

I'm with Sehr. Things are getting worse (or, well, not getting better as quickly as they were meant to), and it's Ansip's fault.

Remember: an Estonian's favourite food is another Estonian.

Personally, I think it's healthy. Polls don't reflect how people will actually vote, even if elections are held tomorrow, but the ghost of a Savisaar future will serve well to keep Ansip's misguided ambitions in check.

Giustino ütles ...

Some of you might find this link distressing.

Kristopher ütles ...

It's 30% to 27% because the numbers are finally returning to what they were at the March 2007 elections (28% to 26%).

Just like it's ultraclose between "Red America" and "Blue America", that is going to be the long-term right-left spectrum divide in Estonia.

Bush won in 2000 and a couple months later his poll numbers were the beneficiary of the neocon plot. Ansip won narrowly in March 2007 and benefited a few weeks later from emotions over his bronze initiative. Probably those voters who make up their minds on the basis of emotions migrated for the short-term.

Compared to the last elections, looks like the Greens and the Social Democrats have gained a point or two to the detriment of everyone else, and I think this will continue to be the long term trend.

Giustino ütles ...

This one is my favorite.

And Kristopher, I agree with you. Ansip enjoyed a Sept. 11-like bounce last May. But remember that Bush's numbers hit his pre-9/11 level sometime in 2005 and then kept dropping.

Anonüümne ütles ...

It's a little like the end of Animal Farm...the links.

Martasmimi ütles ...
Autor on selle kommentaari eemaldanud.
Giustino ütles ...

... Some bloggers even started calling him '9iu11ani' during his presidential campaign ...

AndresS ütles ...

I don't see Laar hooking up with Savisaar. He could have done so last year and become PM again but chose not to, don't see any reason he'd change his mind now.

Martasmimi ütles ...

Giustino says:
This one is my favorite.

And Kristopher, I agree with you. Ansip enjoyed a Sept. 11-like bounce last May. But remember that Bush's numbers hit his pre-9/11 level sometime in 2005 and then kept dropping.
***********************************
As a New Yorker I am quite frankly tired of 9/11 being used in this way.
Never being a big Fan of New York's former mayor
Rudy Giuliani I was, and we, in New York were sick to death of hearing him tout out 9/11 to frame every argument, for every speach he ever gave in his campaign to become President.
Everyone has said that it was the main reason that they grew to dislike hime so much.
He became "Mr 9/11"
Perhaps Judith Nathan was a big contribution to his political end as well.
To a born and raised New Yorker 9/11 is not a reference point.
It is a still terrifying day.
It is this day, that makes many of us in New York look up at the sky on a warm, bright, beautiful, sunny cloudless day ..and think about it's beauty quite differently....

Kristiina ütles ...

I'm more interested to know where and with whom those polls are done. I asked my family, friends and co-workers and no poll people have ever asked anything from them. So where do they get the people and how reliable are the results?

Andres ütles ...

I once got asked about whether I knew what SEB was. I gave an exhaustive schoolboy's answer to that. A couple of months later when SEB Eesti Ühispank changed its name to SEB Pank, I felt kind of guilty. Because my opinion was probably used by the Swedish PR people to say "see, people know our brand".

Andres ütles ...

I've also been asked how often I drink Coca Cola and the same query that asked about SEB also asked about all kinds of stuff including EU issues etc. Also, I've also been visiting another guy when the Emor people did some survey about street ads with him. And IIRC, my mum's opinion has been asked at least once.

Anonüümne ütles ...

I confess I had forgot the numbers and was referring it to 8/11, perhaps confusing it with Spain's or Britain's incidents.

space_maze ütles ...

Remember: an Estonian's favourite food is another Estonian.

Personally, I think it's healthy. Polls don't reflect how people will actually vote, even if elections are held tomorrow, but the ghost of a Savisaar future will serve well to keep Ansip's misguided ambitions in check.


Too true. I quite enjoy morons on the pravda english forum going on and on about Estonia being a fascist country.

The notion of Estonians willingly uniting under a "strong leader" for more than a few days is quite funny.

adam brown ütles ...

Hello I just entered before I have to leave to the airport, it's been very nice to meet you, if you want here is the site I told you about where I type some stuff and make good money (I work from home): here it is