teisipäev, märts 01, 2011

ansip rasmussen vanhanen

The 2011 Estonian parliamentary elections are days away. The Reform Party, led by Prime Minister Andrus Ansip, is poised to win. But rather than wondering how many seats Mr. Ansip will secure for his party in the next parliament, I am wondering how long Ansip intends to stay on Toompea once the new government is sworn in, sometime next month.

Ansip came to power following the demise of Juhan Parts' government in 2005. While the Parts era from 2003 to 2005 was marked by tit-for-tat ministerial sackings and gratuitous genuflecture to promises and values, the Ansip era has been dominated by the former Tartu mayor's teflon persona and a stubbornness that puts him at the George W. Bush level of resolve. This was the man who said famously that he would resign if Estonia didn't adopt the euro in 2007. His estimate was, in the end, four years off, but Ansip's been in power for almost six years, so, who's counting anymore?

Opponents tried to pin Estonia's avalanche of an economic collapse on the Reform Party, who still believe the country will soon be one of the five richest in Europe. Yet, unlike leaders in other liberal-led countries beset by post-2008 catastrophe (Ahem. Iceland), Reform managed to stay in power until economic growth was restored. Officially, they blame the depression of the past few years on others but take personal credit for the restored growth. There is no arguing. When it comes to politics, these guys are professionals.

Ansip's lengthy tenure is paralleled by only one former Estonian statesman, the ill-destined Konstantin Päts, who led a military-backed coup to seize power in 1934 and stayed as the unchallenged father of the nation until he was deported by the Soviets in 1940. He later died in a psychiatric hospital in 1956, claiming to the last of his days to be the president of Estonia. And did you know that Ansip was born in 1956, after Päts died? Do you believe in reincarnation?

But Ansip isn't really a Päts-like demagogue. He has more in common with his cousins in the Baltic. Former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen has been cited as one role model. Former Finnish Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen is another. Rasmussen spent nearly eight years as leader of Denmark before moving on to NATO secretary general. Vanhanen's exit in 2010 was less glorious, but he still spent seven years as PM. In both cases, younger party leaders were selected by the party to take over the reins of government.

Who really will be the next prime minister of Estonia, once Ansip finds some more enchanting career opportunity? Will it be some other Reform minister (Justice Minister Rein Lang? Finance Minister Jürgen Ligi?) or will some Reform Party star rise to the position in a special election held sometime in coming months or years?

In Denmark, they voted for Anders Fogh Rasmussen and wound up with Lars Løkke Rasmussen. In Finland, they voted for Matti Vanhanen an wound up with Mari Kiviniemi. Will those Estonians who vote later this week choose Ansip but really wind up with Keit Pentus in the end? If I could vote in Estonia, I would be asking myself that question.

9 kommentaari:

Ester ütles ...

well, this year i really don't know who to vote for...
i heard that some witches in Estonia have also predicted the victory of Ansip but they also said that he will not stay in power for a very long time - there would be public protests ("rahvarahutused" sounds stronger than "public protests", but i cant find a better equivalent in english) against Ansip and he will have to step down.
just for that i would find it funny voting for Ansip - to see estonians on the street in a way that could be described as "rahvarahutused" :) will there be more than the usual bunch - the edgarjugend with questionable motives or will there more than 20 almost loud people in front of Stenbock house? :)

Piimapukk ütles ...

"Rahvarahutused" in Estonia translate into more harsly worded internet comments that usual. Our Tahir Square is Delfi.ee.

Once in a while Estonia's "permanent tourists" may crack some kiosk windows in downtown and declare that everyting is theirs, but that kind of desperation is strongly frowned upon.
So, yeah. No Tunisia here. Which is a good thing. I guess.

Troels-Peter ütles ...

Interesting analysis. Having a teflon PM sounds familiar to me.

Are there any rumours about a possible internatoional post for Ansip?

plasma-jack ütles ...

speaking of teflon...

Asehpe ütles ...

I also liked "teflon PM". Is this a common expression, or was it Giustino's original achievement? As a non-native, I find it hard to judge. :-)

Jens-Olaf ütles ...

Axel Reetz, a contributer to our blog, said that already 27% of voters have casted their votes. What does that mean?

Kullerkupp ütles ...

Jens-Olaf:
See http://www.vvk.ee/?lang=en
For example - electronic voting was started on 24 February at 9 a.m. and ended on 2 March at 8 p.m. 140846 citizens used their national ID-card to vote over the Internet.

Troels-Peter ütles ...

"Is this a common expression, or was it Giustino's original achievement?"

Hard to say. I think I've heard the word teflon in connection with Rasmussen before, so it could have been made up independently in different places.

Giustino ütles ...

The New York press used to call mob boss John Gotti the 'teflon don' because prosecutor's charges didn't stick to him (until he was put away in 1992). That was probably the inspiration.