teisipäev, oktoober 12, 2010

who is running europe?

When you are into geopolitics, you may catch yourself feeling like a nerd with an odd hobby.

When other people get together, they argue about sports. When you get together with your friends, you argue about undersea gas pipelines.

Fortunately, there are other geopolitics junkies among us. Stratfor, the US-based global intelligence firm, is one of many that gives us our badly needed fix. A recent piece by Marko Papic, entitled "NATO's lack of strategic concept" delivers.

The central thesis of the report is common knowledge. The NATO alliance is internally divided over its future. The "Atlanticists" want to focus on so-called "soft security" threats: terrorism, cybersecurity. "Core Europe," defined in the piece as Germany and France, wants to trim down the alliance and seek consultations with Russia and the UN. The "Intermarum" countries, which run from the Baltic to Black Seas, would like to see NATO as a European territorial defense force, a security guarantee against Russia.

Who is strongest? According to Papic, the odds favor Core Europe, and especially Germany, the continent's "political leader." The emergence of Berlin as the most powerful capital in Europe was the "logical result of the Cold War’s end and of German reunification, though it took 20 years for Berlin to digest East Germany and be presented with the opportunity to exert its power," Papic writes. "Europe’s fate in May 2010 amid the Greek sovereign debt crisis hinged not on what the EU bureaucracy would do, or even on what the leaders of most powerful EU countries would collectively agree on, but rather what direction came from Berlin. This has now sunk in for the rest of Europe."

Berlin now wants to use the current crisis to "reshape the European Union in its own image," Papic writes. Meanwhile, Paris wants to "manage Berlin’s rise and preserve a key role for France in the leadership of the European Union." Atlanticist countries, traditional wary of a strong Germany like Denmark and the UK, are strengthening their ties to the US, perhaps in light of this.

Where does Estonia fall in this scheme? Papic has the country pegged as an Intermarum state, but I would say Estonia also behaves like an Atlanticist country. While Estonia is very keen to see a NATO able to fulfill its Article 5 obligations, Tallinn does host the alliance's Cooperative Cyber Defense Center of Excellence. Estonia is also committed to the operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, where its troops serve alongside British and Danish and American ones in some of those countries' most dangerous territories.

What are the reasons for this ardent Atlanticism? One could certainly point out that the president, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, was educated in the US as an example of close ties between the countries. But Estonia has deep historical links to traditionally Atlanticist countries. America's non-recognition policy kept the country alive on paper for close to 50 years. Denmark and Iceland were the first countries to recognize that restored independence, and I always conceptualized Estonia's membership in NATO as being similar to Denmark or Norway or Iceland's membership in the alliance.

So Estonia is partially Atlanticist. It has a cyberdefense center and troops outside of NATO's original theater of operations. But does this even matter when Germany is intent on reshaping the EU in its "own image"? One has to wonder what this even means. For Estonia certainly has drawn close to Berlin since it reemerged as a free country on the map of Europe. When Estonian lawmakers were given in the early 1990s the choice between adopting old civil law, which was based on tsarist law, or to make new laws, they voted to copy much of their civil code from one country, Germany. When they introduced their new currency, the kroon, they pegged it to the deutschmark, and later the euro. In a few months, Estonia will share the same currency with Germany, and 16 other states.

One can go on and on like this, selecting choice details to construct the image of a post-1989 Germany that was bent on dismantling Yugoslavia and digesting it piece by piece and turning the Baltic Sea into an inner lake of Europe, two geopolitical goals that were shared by earlier German statesmen, by the way. Average Germans will fervently deny that their state is bent on continental domination, but if that is the case, how did their state come to dominate the continent?

Estonians similarly would protest that their accession to European and transatlantic organizations had little to do with Germany. But Germany is at the heart of most organizations they have struggled to join. It's also among most recent in a line of great powers to have designs for the Baltic region. And the genius of Germany's rise, when you think about it, is that no one even sees it. So try flipping it around. Imagine an Estonia in a military alliance with the Russian Federation, a member an economic and political union with the Russian Federation, a part of a free travel area with the Russian Federation. It sounds ominous to our ears, in part because of history, in part because we have now become accustomed to the opposite.

Estonians and other countries in the Intermarum are always cautious about German-Russian deals. But Estonia is in the same military alliance as Berlin, it is the same economic and political union with Berlin, and it soon will have the same currency as Berlin. This begs the question: has there already been a deal?

51 kommentaari:

Matthew ütles ...

Not sure I follow. What deal might that be?

Berlin: Give us political and economic domination of your old fiefdoms and we'll throw a few economic carrots your way.

Moscow: 'K.

It makes perfect sense for Estonia to cozy up to Berlin rather than Moscow because the latter is a political and economic mess. The former – not so much.

Germany's "dominating" or "remaking" Europe "in its own image" effectively amounts to setting the rules of European political and monetary union, especially after PIGSgate showed how dysfunctional they currently are (or maybe not the rules so much as their selective application).

This appeals to the dour, potato-nosed, fuggo-muggo Lutherans* in Helsinki and Tallinn because this is basically how they, too, think things should be run. Witness the comments from M. "she's Europe's best leader**" Ansip and Mme. "it's embarrassing how much we agree on***" Kiviniemi vis-à-vis Merkel.

German resurgence is comparatively less scary this time round because it is less about military buildup and more about throwing a bit political and economic weight around. But the Schröder-Putin wheeling and dealing was scary because it looked like German greed (read: still financial in nature) might be enough for it to sacrifice Baltic security (problem: ramifications arising from Russian military ambitions).

*A term of affection, I assure you :)
**Damn I can't find this. But I totally remember him saying this in some Deutschland Radio or Spiegel interview from 2007 or thereabouts.
***http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Kiviniemi+and+Merkel+discuss+EU+financial+discipline+in+Berlin/1135259825905

Matthew ütles ...
Autor on selle kommentaari eemaldanud.
Matthew ütles ...

Plus both Kiviniemi and Ansip are meant to speak fluent German. Plus ça change... ;D

Giustino ütles ...

Plus both Kiviniemi and Ansip are meant to speak fluent German. Plus ça change... ;D

And Ansip and Merkel both studied chemistry. Curiouser and curiouser.

Lingüista ütles ...

German conspiracy?

:-)

For the time being... are there really any serious complaints about Germany and its role in Europe? Does anyone have a better "leader country" to suggest instead? France, the UK? Would Europe be better if they played Germany's role?

moevenort ütles ...

before I forget about it, please allow me a few word about this what you called "German domination" in Europe. who wants to dominate? the German government, the political elite of Germany, the German people? may be the government, but certainly many ordinary citizens of Germany not. There is a lot of critique within Germany (from politicans, ordinary citizens, trade unions, the church and many others) on the Merkel politics of fiscal discipline and her attempt tp push it true in whole Europe. Because its nothing those people like even for Germany. we call it a rat race, no one can win. it´s just a senseless game of declining wages and declining living standards to make some big companies and banks even more rich and to fullfill or to fulfill the dreams of some ideological driven neo-classic economists, who have not seen yet that their way has failed. in fact, it is nothing the population of Germany likes very much. because they suffer under that policy as well as the people in Spain, Portugal, Greece or Estonia ( and please don´t tell me that there are no losers of that politcis in Estonia, there are many. I am quite aware of the social conditions and the huge gap between rich and poor and the massive unemployment problems of Estonia)

in fact, this is the main reason, why the Merkel government has lost so much reputation in such a short time within the German population.
Again, I would ask you to take those things into consideration as well when you speak about Germany and the future of Europe. thank you.

Temesta ütles ...

Well, certainly the eurozone wasn't part of some German strategy to control Europe. France agreed with German reunification on the condition that Germany gave up its beloved Deutsche Mark, one of the worlds most stable currencies:

http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/351531-you-get-unification-we-get-euro

Also, note that many Germans never really loved the Euro, a feeling that certainly became stronger during the Greek financial crisis.

Giustino ütles ...

Berlin: Give us political and economic domination of your old fiefdoms and we'll throw a few economic carrots your way.

Moscow: 'K.


This was interesting. Kosachev said in it that the Baltics should be integrated into the EU and NATO. A year or two too late, but still ...

Giustino ütles ...

and please don´t tell me that there are no losers of that politcis in Estonia, there are many. I am quite aware of the social conditions and the huge gap between rich and poor and the massive unemployment problems of Estonia)

I am very aware of it. I see it everyday. What disturbs me is how politicians don't talk about it. Maybe they don't want to insult the voters, "Oh my God, you're so poor ..."

siimonrampe ütles ...

Wow. I never saw something written about this topic coming. Well done for having the balls to speak the unspeakable. It's hit a nerve.
Knowing only a few Germans myself, I can apreciate the cincerity here when people write the general population - of Germany - don't share the (possibly) same agenda that their government (may or may not) represent. However it's not a topic I recall ever coming up in general conversation...

Matthew ütles ...

I rather think this is the key paragraph:

So far Putin has chosen cooperation within international frameworks. But the results of this policy have been few and not obvious to ordinary Russians, for whom the 1990s were very disappointing. The logic of NATO expansion is not clear to Russians. There is now undesirable competition in the post-Soviet space.

Full disclosure: I lived in Finland for a few years, so I may well have gone native during that time. But it does seem to me that *not unnecessarily stoking* (not the same thing as appeasing) Russian security concerns is the key to peace in this part of the world. That's not to say that e.g. sovereign Estonia isn't entitled to democratically and freely choose its own alliances, and if I had that history, I'd be hungry for NATO membership too. But I've never understood why Russia couldn't also join NATO. Or why NATO couldn't be dissolved and a new alliance made of all the former states plus Russia. Think about it: you'd have collective security for the Intermarums *and* Russia (presumably NATO Denmark can still call for help if NATO Germany invades her?).

I know, I know – it's naive of me to expect the Putinistas to sensibly and constructively pursue Russian interests.

There was a bloody interesting interview with Egon Bahr (the brain behind West German Ostpolitik) in the Finnish foreign policy monthly Ulkopolitiikka: http://www.ulkopolitiikka.fi/article/488/egon_bahr_kylman_sodan_pesanjako_euroopassa_on_kesken/

Pity you can't read Finnish and I can't read Estonian. Such an annoying waste! But we'll get round to it one of these days... BTW do you know this Helsinki-based Estonian journalist? I ♥ her. http://iiviannamasso.wordpress.com/2010/08/23/history-haunting-politics/

moevenort ütles ...

@ siimonrampe:

may be let me add some things concerning the current federal government of Germany that may help to understand the things I have written before:

according to nearly all political analysts and opinion polls of the last months, the Merkel government is in fact the government with the lowest reputation in Germany for the last 40 years: according to all polls this government would have massive difficulties to get at least 1/3 of the votes, if their would be elections right now, while the opposition (social democrats, green party, and the socialist party of Oskar Lafontaine would have no difficulties to get more than 60%. Merkels Coalition partner, they Free Democrat party (the only real neoliberal party in germany) would even have difficulties to reach the 5% burden to re-enter the parliament.

all these facts caused much speculation in Germany about how long this governemnt will actually hold and if there will be an attempt within the conservative party to get rif of Angela Merkel.

Merkel herself made the next upcoming regional elections in the Baden- Würtenberg region ( a region governed by her party without interruption for the last 60 years to a general plebiszit about the future of her government. But in fact, this does not lokk good for her neither. according to all polls, the results will be davastating: for the first time in German history it could even happen there, that the green party will become strongest there in a regional election (traditionally the German greens are much more left winged than the Estonian Green party) if this will really happen, this will be like an earthquake for the political scene in Germany

the reason for this is a big infrastructure project in this region, which was attempted to push through by the local government against massive protest of the huge majority of the local population. as a consequence, there have been massive demonstrations with several hundred thousand participants from all parts of the population ( including left-winged and conservative people,pensioners and high school people) At one occation, these peaceful demonstrations clashed with police forces, who massively used violence even against teenager and pensioners. the tv pictures of this incident, have gone through whoel Germany and caused a massive debate about the state of democracy, the arrogance of the political class and the need for more participatory democracy in Germany. As Angela Merkel, declared this infrastructure project to her project, many people in Germany blame her directly for the police violence. Additionally, there is also big unrest among the population about the social policy of the Merkel government, which is perceived as unsolidaric and unfair by a majority of the citizens. All together, its not exaggerated to say, that probably no federal government of Germany for many decades was faces with such a massive loss of credibility.

moevenort ütles ...

(2) / continuation:

I understand, that all this may sound very strange for Estonian ears. I know, that there is no discussion in Estonia about what makes a democracy about its quality and about a possible need for qualitative change. I know that the Estonian understanding of "what is a democracy" in comparison to Germany is rather limited. its mostly a minimal understanding, reduced to free elections all four years, politics dominated by political elites and not much scope for citizens involvement. also, the citizen in Estonia, as I have learned to know it, are much more pasive and mostly not interested to participate or engage in political affairs.

But I would like you to understand, that the situation in Germany is very different. Here at the moment people go on the streets, they demand a qualitative change of politics and they are very much interested in direct involvement. additionally and as a consequence, means of direct democracy like more referendums on important issues, are broadly discussed at the moment not only among ordinary people but also among politicians mostly of the opposition parties for the future.


I apologize for the long text, but hope that this information may help to understand the situation in Germany ( any may be also its possible consequences for whole Europe) a little better. thank you.

moevenort ütles ...

ps:

here you may find some additional news information in English about some of the things I just tried to explain:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,720735,00.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,720807,00.html

Lingüista ütles ...

Judging by what I hear about popular involvement and debate in Estonia, I'm guessing that you DON'T know, moevenort.

Mart ütles ...

moevenort, how many times must your talking points be refuted before you can actually admit it and try something new?

moevenort ütles ...

@ mart: these talking points have to do a lot with the topic. Because they explain why it is never wise to see states as "black boxes" in international relatiions. Without an understanding of their inner state of affairs, every analysis or prediction about the future wil unavoidable fail. In concrete: I would not bet too much on angela merkel, her government and her fiscal policy anymore.

Rainer ütles ...

It is becoming more and more clear that moevenort has in fact never been to Estonia. He only says so to validate his point and to come across credible. The country he describes is Elbonia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elbonia

moevenort ütles ...

@ Rainer: please try to be a little it more polite and serious in your argumentation. I have been living and working in Estonia more than 2 years. I know a lot of people from different parts of society there.

Rainer ütles ...

First try and deserve some politeness, then make demands on others.

moevenort ütles ...

I was more than polite in this tread.

moevenort ütles ...

in contrast to you.

Mart ütles ...

The list of things that you have said about Estonia, moevenort:

1. Massive gap between the rich and poor

Can you guess, which European countries are the most similar to Estonia with regards to the income equality? Gini coefficient (UN/CIA) says UK and Switzerland.

2. Massive unemployment

Correct! The most acute problem at the moment.

3. There is no discussion in Estonia about what makes a democracy

Reference? I recommend watching "Vabariigi kodanikud" ("Välisilm" is fine too) and reading "Sirp". Public broadcasting in Estonia is very good in general. It might surprise you to learn that press freedom in Estonia is actually better (if only slightly) than in Germany (RSF)

4. Not much scope for citizen involvement

Reference? I have pointed out before that civil and political rights are well-protected (pick any criterion).

Miacek ütles ...

@Mart: As for Gini, I disagree with the interpretation. It's just one out of many methodologies to measure income distribution and the figure doesn't really say the gap is small or getting smaller in Estonia. The opposite is true in fact. (For comparison, Ukraine also has relatively low GINI ratings, and had it even in 1990s, when poverty was simply rampant)

As for ''It might surprise you to learn that press freedom in Estonia is actually better (if only slightly) than in Germany
''

You are very right. There is an air of censorship in German media (as in a a way there is in other Western mediae). As you can imagine, it is mostly due to the politically correct Gutmensch-left-wing-Meinungsdiktat, whereby all questioning on matters like immigration, integration, immigrant criminality, islamic fundamentalism in Europe is automatically a no-go. It is virtually impossible to try to argue that more immigration is eroding the Western European way of life with all the affluence, civic liberties and tolerant atmosphere.

Unlike in Estonia, where both mildly nationalist and Soviet nostalgic views can be expressed with not much public outcry at least.

moevenort ütles ...

@ Micacek: "Gutmensch" -this word was first used by Nazi ministry of propaganda Goebbels in 1942. German dictionaries say about the current use, that is is used as a political fighting word of the circles of neocons to discredit social solidarity behaviour within societies and to discredit every citizens engagement that goes beyond own egosim. well down, Miacec - you seem to like Goebbels rhetoric very much;)

moevenort ütles ...

by the way: I would appreciate it much more when you would talk about facts instead of using ideological driven political fighting rhetorics including use of such dubious words like "Gutmensch"
what I have described here about the Merkel governemnt was the description of the factual situation in Germany right now. you may go into the internet and try to prove me wrong. but you won´t be succesful in dicreding facts which are there. You may like it or not. but this won´t change the facts.
I am sorry for you, but it is as it is.

Temesta ütles ...

@ Miacek:

"You are very right. There is an air of censorship in German media (as in a a way there is in other Western mediae). As you can imagine, it is mostly due to the politically correct Gutmensch-left-wing-Meinungsdiktat, whereby all questioning on matters like immigration, integration, immigrant criminality, islamic fundamentalism in Europe is automatically a no-go. It is virtually impossible to try to argue that more immigration is eroding the Western European way of life with all the affluence, civic liberties and tolerant atmosphere."

You are describing the situation in Western Europe twenty years ago.
In most of these countries' media there's an open debate going on about the 'evils' of the multicultural society and immigration. In politics I could refer to the succes of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, Vlaams Belang in Belgium, the Swiss People's Party in Switzerland,... who attract wide popular support and in some cases form part of the government or support it.
Centre-right parties in these countries are also taking harsher stands against multiculturalism. And then I didn't even mention Sarkozy's policy against the Roma.

Doris ütles ...

moevenort... sweetie, Miacek's supporting your point (=that the Estonian press liberty isn't all that good and that the gap between rich and poor is actually big). That's the fact which you failed to understand. Pretty much the same way you seem to be unable to fully understand other interesting facts that people here have repeatedly pointed out for you.

moevenort ütles ...

@ Temesta:

an interesting fact is that populist right-winged movements like vlaams belang or gert Wilders are indeed sitting in parliaments in all neighboring countries of Germany. But not in Germany. these movements are margianalized in Germany and play no role in elections, while obviously it is here the political left which seems to benefit since the financial crisis. It would be interesting to know, why it is like that. There was an intensive debate about this among German experts and some claim at least, that out of its devastating historic experience, the county has obviously learned better to contradict racism and right winged prejudices than its neighboring countries.

Miacek ütles ...

@ ''well down, Miacec - you seem to like Goebbels rhetoric very much;)''

Besides getting more acquainted with basic facts concerning Estonia, taking an English course to improve your hitherto meager English skills would greatly facilitate communication and comprehension for you. ''Well DONE'' would be the phrase you probably meant in your post.

As far as the contents of your last posts are concerned, attributing the ''politically correct'' newspeak to the leftists who are ''social solidarity behaviour within societies'' only would unduly discredit the left in general, besides being incorrect. There is no noticeable politically correct self-censorship present in the Estonian centre-left opinions, for example.

moevenort ütles ...
Autor on selle kommentaari eemaldanud.
moevenort ütles ...

stick to the topic, please.
it´s quite funny to see how you switch to insult people, when you have no arguments.
concerning the writing style: I have much work, I am writing very quick and I have no time to check each and every word for spelling mistakes. you may ask, if you have problems to understand something. Or, alternatively, we may talk together in perfect German? you will probably know that the German language is the language spoken by much more people in Europe than English.

concerning your "content": Would you please explain what you mean with "leftist newspeak" exactly?

because it rather sounds like a very sick conspiracy theory. or: just sick right winged-extremism propaganda.
What you blame Germany for? That our laws punish hate- speeches, racism and right- winged extremism? that`s funny. is this what you call "leftist newspeak? are you one of those guys calling everyone a communist who is not sharing your right-winged hate speech agenda?

Temesta ütles ...

@ Giustino:

"Average Germans will fervently deny that their state is bent on continental domination, but if that is the case, how did their state come to dominate the continent?"

Can you give examples of this German domination?
I would say that Germany is the country with the biggest influence in the European Union, as they have the biggest and strongest economy, so it would be strange if otherwise. In Estonia Harjumaa also has more influence than Valgamaa. You can deplore these facts but do you really see some grand design from Germany in all this? I see a country that tries to defend its interests as best as possible, just as Estonia does within a much more limited field.
And don't you think Sweden has much more influence in Estonia then Germany?

moevenort ütles ...
Autor on selle kommentaari eemaldanud.
moevenort ütles ...

"Average Germans will fervently deny that their state is bent on continental domination, but if that is the case, how did their state come to dominate the continent?"

because the political elite acts cut off from most people´s interest. I don`t know, if you understand German language. there was an interesting survey conducted last week by public television channel 1: 80% of the people in Germany say "decisions in our country are met by the political elite without taking into consideration peoples interests", 85% say the political elite has no idea what is going on in the country". As a consequence, 94% agreed that "it is important to move into the streets and to participate in demonstrations to force the government to take into consideration peoples interests."
these are involvement figures normally known from France only.

Jens-Olaf ütles ...

Who is running Europe? Not Germany cause Germany is a lot driven by the politics and changes. There is a study I almost agree with. The outlook there:

quote
With successive rounds of enlargement and treaty reforms, the old days of European integration have vanished. The future direction of the Union has become a lot more difficult to map out and domestic constraints have made it more difficult for suc- cessive German governments over the last decade to set and pursue their agenda.
Today, Germany’s Europapolitik does not always appear to be consistent, inclusive, convincing and confident. The European ‘constitutional trauma’, the restrictive verdicts of the Constitutional Court and the euro crisis have created a great deal of disillusion about the future of the ‘grand European project’. However, the overall commitment to the process of European integration has not been fundamentally challenged up till now and remains a solid pillar of Germany’s self-image.
However, it is not clear whether the disillusionment of recent years and months will in the long run increase scepticism towards the European Union or merely result in an even more pragmatic and inward-looking orientation of Germany’s Europapolitik. In any case, Berlin’s partners in the EU will have to accustom and accommodate themselves to this ‘new Germany’. To reminisce about the ‘good old days’ will not be enough. One can learn from the past that the deepening of European integration and the continued pooling of sovereignty have always been a successful way to answer the question of leadership in Europe.

http://www.emmanouilidis.eu/publications/2010/2010_7_2_Germany_Notre_Europe.php

moevenort ütles ...

@ Jens Olaf: It would be intersting to know if this study you have cited has an empirical base. if yes, who was asked there? elite people or ordinary citizens in Germany?

as far as I could see, it´s just one of those elite projects again. I guess it is saying not much about perceptions among the population.

Giustino ütles ...

Can you give examples of this German domination?

Germany is the state on which the EU is centered.

I would say that Germany is the country with the biggest influence in the European Union, as they have the biggest and strongest economy, so it would be strange if otherwise.

They also have the most people.

In Estonia Harjumaa also has more influence than Valgamaa. You can deplore these facts but do you really see some grand design from Germany in all this?

Stratfor does.

I see a country that tries to defend its interests as best as possible, just as Estonia does within a much more limited field.

If the EU is a civilizational project, and not a values one (though these are not mutually exclusive) then Germany's role in that project is central, especially in the east of Europe. What is it that makes Estonia fundamentally European? Here I refer to Huntington, a theory that has been widely criticized, and yet is reported to be privately accepted by some leaders both in Europe and the Russian Federation.

And don't you think Sweden has much more influence in Estonia then Germany?

There was an interesting article last week in Eesti Ekspress about how Germany and Sweden were actually rivals in the Baltic in the early 1990s. I would say that Sweden won. But Stratfor makes no mention of Sweden as any kind of great regional power.

plasma-jack ütles ...
Autor on selle kommentaari eemaldanud.
Temesta ütles ...

@ Giustino:

"Germany is the state on which the EU is centered."

I hoped for some more specific examples.

Temesta ütles ...

@ Giustino:

"Stratfor does."

I don't see it in the article. Maybe you've read something else between the lines.

Another Stratfor article with a more in depth analysis of Germany's rise:

http://www.stratfor.com/memberships/162441/analysis/20100514_germany_creating_economic_governance

Giustino ütles ...

Well, I read this from Stratfor this week.


" ... if Europe becomes an option for Germany, then not only has Germany re-entered history, but given that Germany is the leading European power, the history of Europe begins anew again ... Germany already depends on Russian energy. If it comes to rely on Russian workers, and in turn Russia comes to rely on German investment, then the map of Europe could be redrawn once again and European history restarted at an even greater pace."

Uh oh.

moevenort ütles ...

that´s nonsens. stupid cold war rhetorics, nothing more.
btw again: who is "Germany"? are countries persons or black boxes.
I was thing neo-realism is dead? obviously not in Estonia.

I wonder why debates in Estonia always look like viewed from a time machine.
some examples:

neo-classic approaches to economy are dead everywhere in the world. - not in Estonia

Tony Blair´s so called "third way" is dead and seen as betrayal of social democratic values everywhere in europe. - not in Estonia

cold war rhetorics and neo - realism in Internationa relations is dead at least in Europa. - but not in Estonia

it seems, that the country is a little bit slow in the understanding of some changes. on the average things are understood there 25 years later than everywhere else?

Joshua ütles ...

moevenort: "I have much work, I am writing very quick and I have no time to check."

Apparently no time to read what others have written either.

You troll too much. Your last post? Just plain wrong.

Lingüista ütles ...

I'm not sure you've got a good understanding of European politics, moevenort. At least seen from here (The Netherlands), pretty much everything you said in your last post looks wrong.

What I see everywhere is a turn to the right -- see local enfant terrible Geert Wilders, whose Partij van de Vrijheid got many more seats than he ever dreamed of. I think he's even entertaining the dream of someday becoming Prime Minister. Pim Fortuyn II, with a rich serving of fake blond hair to boost.

Germany? Schröder. Belgium? Vlaams Belang. Austria? FPÖ. Sweden? Nya Moderaterna. Italy? Ah Italy! As if Berlusconi wasn't enough... there's Ugo Bossi.

Dunno--looks to me you're reliving the 60's, moevenort.

25 years later than everybody else... I sure wish it were so; I'm not sure I like the direction Europe is going. Estonia might then be the last good country to live in.

moevenort ütles ...

@ Linguista: But you hopefully know that Schröder is not active anymore in German politics for years now?

I don´t know, if you have read what I have written. But I wrote that these right winged parties are in parliaments in Germanys neighboring countries, indeed. But not in Germany itself. there it is the political left who is winning from the situation. Social democrats, Green party and the left party. I would like to know why. it´s interesting to see.

When it goes on like this and Germany really wants to "dominate" Europe, then we have a problem: Because than we get a strong left winged German state surounded by small right winged states. hopefully you still want to be "dominated" from Germany then, because may be this can help then to get rid of the right winged populism beyond Germany borders. - I hope you feel the irony.

Temesta ütles ...

@ Linguista:

"I'm not sure you've got a good understanding of European politics, moevenort. At least seen from here (The Netherlands), pretty much everything you said in your last post looks wrong.

What I see everywhere is a turn to the right -- see local enfant terrible Geert Wilders, whose Partij van de Vrijheid got many more seats than he ever dreamed of. I think he's even entertaining the dream of someday becoming Prime Minister. Pim Fortuyn II, with a rich serving of fake blond hair to boost.

Germany? Schröder. Belgium? Vlaams Belang. Austria? FPÖ. Sweden? Nya Moderaterna. Italy? Ah Italy! As if Berlusconi wasn't enough... there's Ugo Bossi.

Dunno--looks to me you're reliving the 60's, moevenort.

25 years later than everybody else... I sure wish it were so; I'm not sure I like the direction Europe is going. Estonia might then be the last good country to live in."

I could be wrong, but I have the impression that a lot of attitudes that in 'Western' Europe are related to the extreme right are rather mainstream in Estonia. Take for example the articles that Priit Pullerits writes in Postimees about foreigners and muslims. In countries like France, Belgium, ... such articles would not only not be published in mainstream newspapers like Postimees, but the author would even run the risk of having to pay a hefty fine or a short prison sentence. Not that I necessarily approve such measures, I just want to illustrate the different climate.

Temesta ütles ...

@ Moevenort:

"an interesting fact is that populist right-winged movements like vlaams belang or gert Wilders are indeed sitting in parliaments in all neighboring countries of Germany. But not in Germany. these movements are margianalized in Germany and play no role in elections, while obviously it is here the political left which seems to benefit since the financial crisis. It would be interesting to know, why it is like that. There was an intensive debate about this among German experts and some claim at least, that out of its devastating historic experience, the county has obviously learned better to contradict racism and right winged prejudices than its neighboring countries."

A quote from an article that appeared in the economist today paints a rather different image:

"Germany’s bestselling book is “Deutschland schafft such ab” (“Germany does away with itself”), a warning by a director of the Bundesbank, since forced out of his job, that too much child-bearing by the poor and by immigrants (especially Muslims), and too little by the educated classes, dooms the country to decline. The book’s popularity has shaken Germany. Xenophobic parties play little role in politics, but the resentments that feed their popularity elsewhere are just as potent. A third of Germans think the country is overrun by foreigners, according to a newly published poll; a majority favour “sharply restricting” Muslim religious practice. Over a tenth would even welcome a Führer who would govern with “a strong hand”—a sign that the embers of extremism still glow."

(http://www.economist.com/node/17305755)

Temesta ütles ...
Autor on selle kommentaari eemaldanud.
Temesta ütles ...

Giustino, you might also be interested in that article.

Temesta ütles ...

@ Linguista:

In addition to my comment above I'll give another example. In Estonia among the political elite the idea that immigration (especially non-europeans) is an undesirable thing is quite common. So there is no fertile ground in Estonia for an anti-immigration party as in The Netherlands or Belgium where untill recently the political elite was pro-immigration or neutral.