The forecast? Possible leadership under a 10-year-old party called the "Social Democratic Alliance" together with its icky-sounding partners, the "Left-Green Movement" (not to be confused with the party "Icelandic Movement - Living Land" [splitters!]). Elections in May (they had been scheduled for 2011) to follow.
While Estland is not Iceland, the political squabbling that undermined its government is similar. In Iceland, you had a 'grand coalition' of liberals and social democrats. In Estland, the coalition includes the Social Democrats, who are willing yet ideologically dissimilar partners for a center-right government. Such coalitions are typically formed for political expediency, though ideology is known to rear its head.
As Haarde's liberal Independence Party heads into opposition, questions arise as to how a center-left government in a small, northern European country that is grappling with an economic crisis will rule. As I have written about previously, we still do not know what this coming renaissance of social democracy may bring. The labor movements of the 1930s have long faded from public memory, and the halcyon 1960s were experienced by today's political leaders only as children. There has been no reformulation of social democratic policies. The red symbols of these parties are cute, yet anachronistic.
In Estonia, the position of the center-left parties, including SDE and the Center Party, is more dubious. In the nordic countries, even outliers like Iceland, social democrats have some electoral track record. In Estonia, SDE is in the government and shows no interest in working with the leadership of KERA, while KERA is in opposition and is hoping to woo SDE. What haunts both parties is that there hasn't been a popularly elected left-wing government in Estonia since 1929! Should Estonia undergo a similar political shift, we will be heading into uncharted waters. In the meantime, we can watch Iceland for clues.