teisipäev, veebruar 19, 2008

pressure drop

What? Did you actually think I was going to stick my nose in the gigantic diplomatic mess that is the Republic of Kosovo? Let's just recall that it took slightly less than two years and a war for Russia to let go of Estonia in 1920. And let's also recall that Russia lost that war, just because it still feels good. Maybe there's a light at the end of the tunnel?

But here's something even more interesting -- the latest poll on support for Estonian political parties. Well, what do you know, the post-Bronze Soldier boost for Andrus Ansip's Reform Party has started to decline amidst a slow down in the real estate market and concerns about inflation and less tourists.

Despite this, Reform's ability to work with its sometimes fractious coalition partners, Isamaa-Res Publica Liit and Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond, has kept the party afloat with 35 percent of respondents saying they support the party of wealth plus patriotism.

The real news to me is that it looks like Sotsid and the Rohelised are eating into the top three parties' support. IRL has 13 percent support compared to SDE and the Greens, who have 12 percent support. Can you believe that Marek Strandberg's Greens are polling as well as Mart Laar's IRL? What happened?

The final piece of the puzzle is Eestimaa Rahva Liit, the agrarian party who, with a consistent 5 percent of support, are ripe for acquisition. My only question is who will swallow ERL first?

12 kommentaari:

Andres ütles ...

The current trend with the Greens is probably similar to what occurred when the party was formed. People are proud and eager to say they support the Greens but when it comes to election day they pick someone else.

Instructor ütles ...

Isamaa doesn't exist anymore. They've been totally subsumed by Res Publica.

Sad, but true.

Instructor ütles ...

And it's easy to say you support a party out of power, like the Greens, when there's nothing at stake.

Flasher T ütles ...

Glad to see Reform's support dwindling. They're no good at the head of a coalition.

Sorry to see KERA still hanging in there.

Rahvaliit is a poison pill - not enough support to be worthwhile dealing with all their shit.

Giustino ütles ...

I always thought of Res Publica as the youth wing of Isamaa. And it did seem pretty stupid that there were two right wing parties in the pre-merger days with basically the same platform.

Giustino ütles ...

Sorry to see KERA still hanging in there.

Where else would their voters go, honestly? Would they change their support to IRL or Reform? No.

plasma-jack ütles ...

if Isamaaliit read like a history book, RP was made on Powerpoint..

Kristopher ütles ...

I wonder exactly when Isamaaliit started developing its conservative orientation on social issues.

It was surprising and unwelcome to me as the ranks seemed to be filled with people like Mart Nutt -- these ur-Estonian types who probably have a forest farm or something.

I might have continued to support the party just for its combination of liberal economic views and support for large families.

But one day, they just seemed hopelessly out of touch and out of style.

Wherever Koonderakond is now, Rahvaliit will join them there.

Toivo ütles ...

Add 35+13. It's almost 50% of the voters. These two parties should join forces.

Juhan ütles ...

KeRe will be born again. These two are the biggest and very much seem to share a view how a state should be run.

andres ütles ...

I do hold in high regards the efforts of Isamaaliit to bring family values to Estonia. We must make more babies and make our values pure to our origin of being.

Tatsutahime ütles ...

Support for Sotsid has come mainly from their acts about labour contract law, they had guts to oppose it firmly.