tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post4719141389496994188..comments2023-11-05T09:55:13.077+02:00Comments on Itching for Eestimaa: connecting the dotsGiustinohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04756707910693785516noreply@blogger.comBlogger81125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-90926293494666235662010-11-22T12:07:21.182+02:002010-11-22T12:07:21.182+02:00I liked this post very much as it has helped me a ...I liked this post very much as it has helped me a lot in my research and is quite interesting as well. Thank you for sharing this information with us.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.mastersdissertation.co.uk/essays/essays_on_patriotism.htm" rel="nofollow">buy essays on patriotism</a>jenniferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09226241977752348399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-19082363405483126102007-12-06T00:15:00.000+02:002007-12-06T00:15:00.000+02:00Trek said: Just watch me get all Red Dawn on their...<I>Trek said: <BR/>Just watch me get all Red Dawn on their ass. "Wolverines!" Er, I mean, ah..."Barn Swallows!!!"</I><BR/><BR/>I'd like to cheer you guys too. Uhh... But it's tough. Yelling 'BEAVER' (Canuck national animal) might be, uh, misunderstood!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-14605399858791789122007-12-06T00:11:00.000+02:002007-12-06T00:11:00.000+02:00The West keeps telling them that if they build a s...<I>The West keeps telling them that if they build a state that way, it won't last for long. But they never listen.</I><BR/><BR/>What?? Here I am, back from shopping (zu Befähl!) with 'personal lubricants' supply replenished, and you've left me with no loose ends to pick at? <BR/>:-)<BR/><BR/>Well, there remains only my sincere approbation. "I give you the clap," as a Polish friend once said to initiate applause after I'd said a few words at a wedding banquet. (His lapse in idiom was immediately forgiven and quickly explained to him.)<BR/><BR/>Your detailing of endemic flaws in Russian policy past and present gives comfort to those of us who at times can foresee little relief from the mindless bullying and swagger of the current Kremlin crew.<BR/><BR/>I suppose the hyper-centralization of Kremlin authority - which exceeds even the degree of centralization of Soviet years - is another built-in flaw. Satisfying for a control-freak like Vlad, but guaranteed to replicate and multiply policy and adminstrative errors made at the top right across the land.<BR/><BR/>I just feel sorry for the brave youngsters of Oborona and 'The Other Russia' who must take the full brunt of Kremlin bullying with little access to external support...<BR/><BR/>The course Putin has set for his unfortunate people is quite mad. Brings to mind Euripides' line about 'whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.'Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-13532677623168105862007-12-05T23:58:00.000+02:002007-12-05T23:58:00.000+02:00Don't worry, Max. Trek will be there with us in th...<I>Don't worry, Max. Trek will be there with us in the English-speaking cross country-skiing kamikaze platoon protecting Vastseliina from Pets, er, Pechory on that glorious day of disappointment.</I><BR/><BR/>Just watch me get all <I>Red Dawn</I> on their ass. "Wolverines!" Er, I mean, ah..."Barn Swallows!!!"Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02108695780291232809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-6341451750912407462007-12-05T23:00:00.000+02:002007-12-05T23:00:00.000+02:00http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL0529...http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL0529664120071205<BR/><BR/>Has anybody here any doubt that Russian is very close to being a genuinely fascist state, with a National Leader who has the majority's support? What would happen if Russia has an economic crash and the controlled democracy decides to start a war to mobilize the masses? Like it happened in 1999? What if US had another moron as a President? <BR/>Still, I think that Georgia would be the first target, if that scenario came to past. So, we can still go to pub and that's it. If and when a new war reaches Estonia, we're hopefully too old to fight and thanks to our outstanding social positions, mercifully shot during the first days of occupation. But yeah, this won't affect today's life, so let's eat, play and be merry. Cheers (:plasma-jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06485039580759398780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-91911949670843712642007-12-05T21:29:00.000+02:002007-12-05T21:29:00.000+02:00Pssst! Trek,Don't say 'tanks' or 'invade'.Gets Bas...<I>Pssst! Trek,<BR/><BR/>Don't say 'tanks' or 'invade'.<BR/><BR/>Gets Basil all worked up....</I><BR/><BR/>Don't worry, Max. Trek will be there with us in the English-speaking cross country-skiing kamikaze platoon protecting Vastseliina from Pets, er, <I>Pechory</I> on that glorious day of disappointment. <BR/><BR/>I expect you'll be there as well, Kirkegaard book in tow for good luck and body armor.<BR/><BR/><I>But in enumerating the stalwart service done by various particpants in forging the links of Euro unity, you DID leave out the CV of one chap:</I><BR/><BR/>He hasn't quite figured out what to do yet. Our <A HREF="lettonica.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow">friend in Daugavpils</A> thinks he wants to turn Latvia into a <I>guberniya</I> with a flag and an Olympic team.<BR/><BR/>But one advantage Estonia has is that most of the "objectives" listed on its CV have been achieved. This country has an agenda, articulated since restoration -- to be a high-tech, wealthy, northern European country.<BR/><BR/>The problem with the "objectives" on the bear's CV is that they are vague and unrealistic. <BR/><BR/>Since Russia began to engage the Estland and Livland provinces it has been that way. <BR/><BR/>They wanted everyone to be Orthodox and made them more devout Lutherans. They wanted to make the maarahvas Russians and they turned into Estonians. Later, they wanted to make the Estonians communists and gave birth to the generation of Mart Laar and Andrus Ansip. It's been quite a spectacular 150 years of failure, hasn't it? <BR/><BR/>It's quite apt that you would mention Mussolini. Like Mussolini, Putin made the trains run on time. Like Mussolini, Putin wants Russia to be great. And, like Mussolini, he really has no idea how to define greatness or how to achieve it. It's an empty mission statement: 'we want to be powerful and respected.'<BR/><BR/>Good for you, Russia. Don't we all. <BR/><BR/>The reason they have to whine about the US at every turn is not because they've been slighted, but because they don't know who they are. All they know is that Russia is "supposed to be great" and "have status" and "greatness" and "status" are defined within their perceptions of the United States.<BR/><BR/>If the US does it, then Russia should copy it to achieve the power and status of the US. If the OSCE doesn't send election observers, then it's at the request of the arch villain Americans and shouldn't be taken seriously. Russians are building their whole essence in response to their perception of the US.<BR/><BR/>It all comes back to Peter and his city in a Finnish swamp. He wanted to build Amsterdam without the values. A fake Europe that continues to fall apart for the same reasons.<BR/><BR/>The West keeps telling them that if they build a state that way, it won't last for long. But they never listen.Giustinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04756707910693785516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-48581794249692639622007-12-05T20:09:00.000+02:002007-12-05T20:09:00.000+02:00Pssst! Trek,Don't say 'tanks' or 'invade'.Gets Bas...Pssst! Trek,<BR/><BR/>Don't say 'tanks' or 'invade'.<BR/><BR/>Gets Basil all worked up....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-27773807078556926912007-12-05T19:59:00.000+02:002007-12-05T19:59:00.000+02:00"Oh, I could spend the rest of my life having this..."Oh, I could spend the rest of my life having this conversation - look - please try to understand before one of us dies." <BR/> -John CleeseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-30653897823696103252007-12-05T19:55:00.000+02:002007-12-05T19:55:00.000+02:00The most terrible fight is not when there is one o...<I> The most terrible fight is not when there is one opinion against another, the most terrible is when two men say the same thing --and fight about the interpretation, and this interpretation involves a difference of quality.<BR/><BR/>-Søren Kierkegaard <BR/>Journals, 1850 entry.</I>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-5703693646564083902007-12-05T19:44:00.000+02:002007-12-05T19:44:00.000+02:00Excellent, Giustino, and all true. Perhaps I shoul...Excellent, Giustino, and all true. Perhaps I should stop peering closely at the cornerstones of the Viru Keskus and Kaubamaja in apprehension, fearing to discover inscribed there the text of Shelley's 'Ozymandias'?<BR/>:-)<BR/><BR/>Nope, all true, re the Balto-Scandic progress. But in enumerating the stalwart service done by various particpants in forging the links of Euro unity, you DID leave out the CV of one chap: 'who has learned to eat acorns and acts like a bear, but still walks upright like a man.' Hell, that's what I was anticipaing after your ironic pause. That's the history I was alluding to in my last posting.<BR/><BR/>The allusion to the Baltic as 'an inland sea of the EU' as too was apt. There's another historic irony here. I've often thought of the new Scando-Baltic symbiosis as a reincarnation of the Kalmar Union (qv) which after all was never formally dissolved. ;-) On the other hand, one shouldn't rename the <I> Mare Balticum </I> as <I> Mare Nostra </I>. (Musso did that with the Med, and he ended up swinging by his heels.)<BR/><BR/>Quite right too that full credit must be given to the Germans for their solid support of the Baltics, notwithstanding the <I> karuteened </I> of that prostitute* Schröder (*California Rep. Tom Lantos' sobriquet for him, but one I echo with glee).<BR/><BR/>In many ways, the halcyon days of Baltic-German relations were in the early days of post-restoration, when the German ambassador to Tallinn was Baron Henning von Wisinghausen (scion of an old Tallinn family), the ambassador to Riga was the younger Baron von Lambsdorff (scion of an old Baltic family) while his father, the elder Baron v. Lambsdorff sat as a Free Democrat in Kohl's ruling coalition. One felt then that in addition to national interests, 'historic' vested interests were represented at a level of personal diplomacy, especially with Lennart Meri at our end.<BR/><BR/>Well, I figured you would know and love Cleese, but I'd like you to picture him in the persona of Basil Fawlty whenever you cry: <I>'For God's sake, don't mention the war!' </I> Remember how his guests and staff reacted?<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>All is not lost, Max.</I> <BR/><BR/>... as the guy said when he phoned his wife from Las Vegas. <BR/><BR/>Caution and panic are poles apart. And I may at times be discouraged and disappointed, but I'm in no wise close to despair. <BR/><BR/>By the way, you DO know the difference between disappointment and despair, don't you? <BR/><BR/>Disappointment is when you discover for the first time that you can't make it the second time. Despair is when you discover for the second time that you can't make it the first time. (Herr Pfizer need not interject any plugs for his product, and I don't want to hear from the liars, just from their wives and girl friends!) Ah, you young chaps don't know yet...<BR/><BR/><BR/><I>So, please, go shopping.</I><BR/><BR/>I will, and right now, to stock up on personal lubricants (2 varieties) so as to prepare for re-entry into the circle-jerk.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-80554402040654308432007-12-05T19:27:00.000+02:002007-12-05T19:27:00.000+02:00So, I'm not proclaiming that history has ended, ju...<I>So, I'm not proclaiming that history has ended, just that at the moment it doesn't seem sensible to lose sleep over total hypotheticals.</I><BR/><BR/>Exactly. I can sit around all day and think about horrible scenarios for Estonia, but I don't curl up under the covers at night and listen for tanks rolling down Pärnu mnt.<BR/><BR/>And pretty much any scenario I can think of means Estonia wouldn't be the only country that would be having a bad time of things. Not like Russia is going to invade Estonia just because it means so much to them. You'd be talking about the failure of NATO and the EU and an ensuing continental/worldwide conflict.Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02108695780291232809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-65324369107685053922007-12-05T18:34:00.000+02:002007-12-05T18:34:00.000+02:00Dear me, I have not denied the possibility of all ...Dear me, I have not denied the possibility of all sorts future disasters. I have merely pointed out that at the moment they are obviously not so close that we should expect the imminent return of WWII. So we really cannot take any practical actions to prevent this return from happening. History is of central importance, and yes, there are repeating patterns in it, but it doesn't seem ever to replicate itself identically. Most of time preparing for the last war has actually been a mistake, if we talk about practical lessons of history... So, I'm not proclaiming that history has ended, just that at the moment it doesn't seem sensible to lose sleep over total hypotheticals. Or do these vivid flashbacks have some practical value?stockholm slenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16909107517362691387noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-23871144073515878122007-12-05T17:24:00.000+02:002007-12-05T17:24:00.000+02:00So do countries and regions. Their records are cal...<I>So do countries and regions. Their records are called histories. One ignores major chapters in such histories at one's peril.<BR/><BR/>Simply wishing or willing a new and brighter future and insisting historic factors don't apply is naive.</I><BR/><BR/>Well, with that in mind, why are strategists continuously writing off three countries that have played a significant role in Estonian/Baltic history: Sweden, Germany, and Poland?<BR/><BR/>Perhaps I am too much of a Scandinavianist and unable to grasp the facts at hand, but when I see the local shopping centers, banks, news media, airlines, hotels, telecommunication networks, sanitation companies, and spas owned by Nordic capital, then perhaps I am to imagine that Gustavis Adolphus has been reincarnated in some laptop-carrying, wireless-appreciating Swedish venture capitalist.<BR/><BR/>Contrast this to the first half of the last century, when Norway was a new country, Iceland was a Danish possession, Finland was loyal to the tsar, and the Swedes had yet to regain their mojo with Volvo and Ikea.<BR/><BR/>In the globalized marketplace, Estonia has become an extension of the Nordic market. Perhaps it is part of the Nordic market when you consider that those eestlased at Hansapank are moving up the chain of command. Or how about that in Tartu, there are Norwegians and Danes teaching at the Baltic Defense College.<BR/><BR/>So that's the Nordic region.<BR/><BR/>Then there is Germany. Estonia copied much of its laws from Germany in the early 90s, pegged its currency to the mark and later the euro. Germany was also generous enough to support Estonian accession to the European Union, moving the boundaries of the union eastward and making itself the new motor of the organization. <BR/><BR/>How funny it is that the Germans of the 1910s and the 1940s dreamed of making the Baltic an "inland sea of the reich." And now the Estonians, Finns, and Swedes boast that the Baltic is "an inland sea of the European Union."<BR/><BR/>There's no need to pause for the sake of irony, but ...<BR/><BR/><B>{pause}</B><BR/><BR/>Then there's Poland who is finalizing energy deals with Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Surely the Poles have an interest in Lithuanian nuclear power, and surely they plan to stay. <BR/><BR/>We could also bring in the Brits here, giving the support they have historically lent to countries on the Baltic, including Finland and Poland. In fact, wasn't Estonian independence achieved with the help of British naval power and Finnish volunteers?<BR/><BR/>All is not lost, Max. So, please, go shopping. And John Cleese is a hero of mine. Thank you for the comparison.Giustinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04756707910693785516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-57574885288145725422007-12-05T17:00:00.000+02:002007-12-05T17:00:00.000+02:00Well, I'm with you, plasma-jack: kalashnikovs and ...Well, I'm with you, plasma-jack: kalashnikovs and things that go boom are pretty much a doomsday scenario, and <I> I have never invoked them </I>. I see the immediate and proximate threats coming in the form of internal destablilization through fifth columns, fiscal manipulation (Russian money), energy muscle, etc. The optics of such offensives against Estonia (and other states) are less apocalyptic, but the effects are nonetheless dramatic and fatal. Why should they invade or occupy if they can neutralize, control and manipulate? Sitting on one's bayonets is always uncomfortable, as Napoleon noted, but turning taps and effecting corporate buyouts is easy. It's being done all the time. The only defences possible are a common EU energy policy and a common EU foreign policy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-2426107101818099762007-12-05T16:32:00.000+02:002007-12-05T16:32:00.000+02:00For the record, I'm a regular 24-yeat old guy that...For the record, I'm a regular 24-yeat old guy that spends most of his time thinking about booze, chicks and music. I'm just a bit allergic to the words "stability" and "progress"; I doubt in latter concept and I really don't believe in stability. But yeah, no need to dig up our kalashnikovs just yet, we can still go shopping.plasma-jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06485039580759398780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-26819804366327068392007-12-05T16:29:00.000+02:002007-12-05T16:29:00.000+02:00If so, what does it tell us who are farther remove...<I> If so, what does it tell us who are farther removed from those anxieties?</I><BR/>In essence, that jousting in Giustino's sand box is rather like being a guest in Fawlty Towers, with Giustino as Basil Fawlty/John Cleese flapping his arms and screeching: 'Don't mention the WAR!' <BR/><BR/>It's absurd to excise references to cataclysmic events which re-created the map of the world and redefined international relationships aroundd the world, not just in Europe. <BR/><BR/>And it's incredibly Pollyanna to assume that the relatively short-lived politico-economic structures and agreements of today's Europe will enjoy a permancence and viability surpassing those of the League and Locarno. NATO is creaking and groaning as its undermanned formations take casualties in A-stan, that graveyard of great imperial armies. Despite the spittle flying and champagne corks popping year after year in Brussels and Strasbourg, Europe can't get the fundamentals of a unified stand together in terms of energy, foreign polcy or defence (whatever happened to the WEU?).<BR/><BR/>Corporations are judged by their performance records, production stats and stocks. Individuals carry their CVs, health records AND criminal records with them through their lives.<BR/><BR/>So do countries and regions. Their records are called histories. One ignores major chapters in such histories at one's peril.<BR/><BR/>Simply wishing or willing a new and brighter future and insisting historic factors don't apply is naive. History is fact; the present is ephemeral and can only be understood in retrospect; and the future is always uncertain.<BR/><BR/>That's not at all a bad thing. If as individuals we could foresee every undesirable future event in our lives -- hell, many of us might just take the rope out to the barn this very day!! ;-))<BR/><BR/>"History is more interesting than politics." <BR/> -Lennart Meri <BR/><BR/>"In the past, when I shot films about fishermen and hunters, I always had to admire their ability to perceive time in its entirety. The present was always temporary. <BR/><BR/>"Our civilisation has lost this bond between times, and tends to measure time with a yardstick, bit by bit, from one point to another. <BR/><BR/> -Lennart MeriAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-12496211410368938762007-12-05T13:20:00.000+02:002007-12-05T13:20:00.000+02:00I'm not living in paranoia. But I do reckon that w...<I>I'm not living in paranoia. But I do reckon that with neighbours like these, many things could happen.</I><BR/><BR/>Yes, we live in a bad neighborhood. That has always been the case. But in comparison to some other neighborhoods, say in Grozny or Baghdad or Mogadishu, it isn't so bad after all.<BR/><BR/>What do you want me to say? That Russia is a threat to its neighbors? Of course. That's what the Finnish defense minister said recently.<BR/><BR/>The only comfort you'll find, Plasma-Jack, is that you are not alone. And it's not just a "post-Soviet" problem. It's a European problem.<BR/><BR/>I wonder, though, if the Greeks are still paranoid about the Turks; the Poles still paranoid about the Germans. I think that is the case. If so, what does it tell us who are farther removed from those anxieties?Giustinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04756707910693785516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-7867988069839998152007-12-05T13:16:00.000+02:002007-12-05T13:16:00.000+02:00What should you do then with this realistic assess...What should you do then with this realistic assessment of the coming WWII - maybe Estonia should disengage from the West and pre-emptively offer some military basis to Stal..., sorry Putin? It just seems to me that it is not fruitful to fret over these outlandish scenarios. And that most that is useful has already been very effectively done. Of course, there are some internal issues that will contribute to hard national security (such as the minority question), but the essence of the matter is that Estonia is fully integrated to Western security and economic organizations and if they will crumble (of which there is no sign whatsoever at the moment), then it's not only Estonia that is in deep trouble but the whole world. Sorry, but you are not alone any more, the splendid isolation has ended.stockholm slenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16909107517362691387noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-46892143536028207582007-12-05T13:02:00.000+02:002007-12-05T13:02:00.000+02:00Nobody has said that Putin is "new Hitler", that w...Nobody has said that Putin is "new Hitler", that would be ridicolous. We know that he's Putin, the ex-KGB guy who became National Leader (sounds even better in German) and that's scary enough. It's not wise to forget that the very same guy has already has started one war.plasma-jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06485039580759398780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-66895001422465657842007-12-05T12:59:00.000+02:002007-12-05T12:59:00.000+02:00The reality is that you cannot predict the future ...<I>The reality is that you cannot predict the future and you cannot live your life in paranoia about what might happen ... anywhere.</I><BR/><BR/>I'm not living in paranoia. But I do reckon that with neighbours like these, many things could happen. You can call me paranoid and believe in the eternal and benevolent Western civilization. On the other hand, 20+ Estonian guys like me can call you "sinisilmsed Lääne inimesed" (:plasma-jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06485039580759398780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-22529927651857450772007-12-05T11:41:00.000+02:002007-12-05T11:41:00.000+02:00re - plasma-jackI'm not saying that such things ca...re - plasma-jack<BR/><BR/>I'm not saying that such things cannot happen, or course they can. Just that at the moment there is not the slightest sign of them happening. In practical terms. These kinds of seismic historical events don't appear out of nothing, so I don't really see the practical point of having these flashbacks today. There is no acute threat, no indication of any concrete mid to long term threat, so I why worry about a highly unlikely scenario that shows, as yet, no sign of ever occurring? What would be the practical use? Estonia has already chosen its strategy (to integrate fully with the West), implemented it with high skill, and concequently she will stand or fall along with those Western structures that at the moment are completely unthreatened by any WWII or even Cold War type of existential enemy. I guess we can imagine many bad scenarios how all this could end, but I don't really see the practical use of that in these circumstances.stockholm slenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16909107517362691387noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-31422899562217219972007-12-05T10:46:00.000+02:002007-12-05T10:46:00.000+02:00Autor on selle kommentaari eemaldanud.Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02108695780291232809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-28397229139631023612007-12-05T10:37:00.000+02:002007-12-05T10:37:00.000+02:00The basis of optimism is sheer terror.I recall mee...<I>The basis of optimism is sheer terror.</I><BR/><BR/>I recall meeting a Swiss woman who informed me that the Germans were buying up all the real estate in Schweiz as part of their evil plan to take over Europe. <BR/><BR/>The Russians are apparently buying up land on the Finnish side of the border with similar intentions.<BR/><BR/>No wonder these two nationalities seem so perky.<BR/><BR/>Would you define real estate acquisition as a national security threat? If so, one might see Brits buying summer homes on the Croatian coast as the first step to EU integration. And where there are British tourists, NATO is sure to follow!Giustinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04756707910693785516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-75717804569762755152007-12-05T10:25:00.000+02:002007-12-05T10:25:00.000+02:00After the Locarno treaties in 1925 they said there...<I>After the Locarno treaties in 1925 they said there will never be a war in Europe.</I><BR/><BR/>They said that a lot after the First World War. The reality is that you cannot predict the future and you cannot live your life in paranoia about what might happen ... anywhere.<BR/><BR/>Who knew when they boarded those flights in Boston back in September 2001 that their planes were destined for the World Trade Center in New York? Nobody, except the hijackers.<BR/><BR/>Looking at past events as some kind of indicator of how the future will unfold is helpful, but it always depends which events you choose to use for your basis of interpretation and how.<BR/><BR/>Estonia did that in the 1990s. They looked back and realized that neutrality in the 30s left them isolated and dependent on Moscow. So they decided to integrate with Western economic and defense structures instead to guarantee their sovereignty.<BR/><BR/>As I pointed out earlier, people in general are more familiar with the Second World War, some were born directly after it, and often they interpret all events through the "Hitler" prism -- where the Ayatollah is the "new Hitler", followed by Saddam Hussein, followed by Ahmadinejad. <BR/><BR/>It is so ingrained in their thinking that they just can't resist applying it to all foreign policy questions. I find this line of thinking to equivalent to a foreign policy lobotomy. There is no logic behind it, other than some fuzzy idea that history is cyclical.<BR/><BR/>But the Europe of the 1930s is definitely not the Europe of the 2000s, is it? Nor is it the Europe of the 1900s or the Europe of the 1840s. Europe is no longer a continent ruled by haggling between Great Powers and "spheres of influence". The British are not, for example, trying to check German power in Scandinavia.<BR/><BR/>So if I were to predict future conflicts in Europe, I wouldn't base my analysis on the possibility of Germany trying to reacquire Stettin, or Denmark trying to take back Schleswig-Holstein.<BR/><BR/>The conflict I see, as Jens Olaf has pointed out and Edward Lucas has written about, is the economic versus ethics debate. How does a system that is constantly dealing with an illiberal state, Russia, as a partner, make ethical decisions?<BR/><BR/>If the ideal is to integrate Russia into the West, to make Russian aggression to be not in that country's interest in Europe, but to somehow export ethical, democratic government -- how can one accomplish that when you've got Gerhard Schroeder on the board of Gazprom?<BR/><BR/>Europe must choose soon whether or not it will be the continent of Schrödocracy or something else.Giustinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04756707910693785516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13406351.post-12032177164216189702007-12-05T09:14:00.000+02:002007-12-05T09:14:00.000+02:00Estonia is now fully integrated to the West and ca...<I>Estonia is now fully integrated to the West and cannot be attacked and occupied without the disintegration of the current Western organizations and Western power in general.</I><BR/><BR/>After the Locarno treaties in 1925 they said there will never be a war in Europe.plasma-jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06485039580759398780noreply@blogger.com